Unclear Winters: Securing the Gulf Through Deterrence, Restraint, and Dialogue

As the winters of 2026 approach, the Gulf faces the challenge of preventing a prolonged regional confrontation from escalating into a wider conflict, potentially involving nuclear risks. Against this backdrop, the 22nd Manama Dialogue concluded on November 1, with a broad convergence of views on a regional security framework grounded in sovereignty, freedom of navigation, restoration of pre-war conditions in the Strait of Hormuz, and continued dialogue with Iran. A central message was that credible deterrence must be complemented by diplomacy and agreed rules of conduct. Bahrain’s Foreign Minister, Abdullatif Al Zayani, captured this approach, emphasizing that the door remains open, “but it leads to rules, not exceptions, and to actions, not intentions.”

The challenge now is to translate this convergence into practical arrangements for monitoring compliance, managing incidents, and building confidence. The urgency is evident in the Strait of Hormuz, where some 1,600 vessels have reportedly been held up, affecting more than 23,000 seafarers. As the Dialogue concluded, reports emerged of a vessel striking a mine, alongside Iranian claims that three tankers had been halted. Although independently unverified, these reports underscore the need for trusted mechanisms to establish facts, manage maritime incidents, and prevent escalation.

The Deterrence Architecture Exists

The Gulf’s deterrence architecture is well established and continues to strengthen. It includes national air and missile defenses, the US military presence, the Saudi-led Multinational Maritime Defense Coalition launched on July 30, the Franco-British Hormuz initiative presented at Manama, and the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement among Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Türkiye.

These arrangements aim to deter aggression and strengthen collective security, a commitment reinforced by the 2025 Saudi-Pakistan Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement. The October 26 visit of high-level Saudi, Pakistani, and Turkish delegations to Tehran reflected a parallel diplomatic effort to ease regional tensions, address security concerns surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on Saudi Arabia, and support ongoing mediation. The engagement helped sustain dialogue and explore avenues for de-escalation, although a formal security understanding remains to be reached.

Such engagement demonstrates how credible deterrence can be complemented by practical measures to reduce tensions and manage potential crises. Restoring safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, facilitating the passage of stranded vessels and crews, and preventing incidents at sea require reliable communication channels, transparency, and agreed procedures. Together, credible deterrence and mutual restraint can reinforce regional security and create conditions for lasting stability.

The Restraint Side Must be Built

The Gulf needs stronger regional mechanisms for managing incidents at sea, sharing reliable information, maintaining direct communication among defense chiefs, and protecting seafarers and critical undersea infrastructure. As Al Zayani observed, “the problem lies not in the absence of legal rules, but in the weakness of their enforcement.”

Five practical measures could help address these gaps, complementing existing defense alliances while strengthening regional confidence and restraint.

• Gulf Restraint Compact. A Helsinki-inspired declaration committing regional states to respect sovereignty and refrain from attacks on civilian infrastructure, shipping, and undersea cables, including through armed groups. An annual review could assess implementation and violations. Such an arrangement could build on a US-Iran understanding on Hormuz.
• Gulf Incidents-at-Sea and Information Network (G-INCSEA). A naval code of conduct based on the 1972 US-Soviet agreement, supported by an information-sharing center modelled on ReCAAP. Open to every littoral state, including Iran, Oman, and Pakistan, this technical initiative could be an early confidence-building measure.
• Security Chiefs’ Hotline. Institutionalize the October 26 Tehran dialogue through a permanent, regularly tested communication channel to enable timely consultations during crises.
• Regional Guarantor Group. Establish a mechanism to monitor and report on the phased reopening of Hormuz, once agreed through US-Iran diplomacy, strengthening confidence in implementation.
• Seafarers and Cables Charter. Establish a humanitarian corridor for stranded crews and secure commitments to protect undersea cables, landing stations, and data centers, building on existing initiatives at the UN and other international forums. These practical, low-cost measures could strengthen maritime security, build confidence, and promote regional goodwill.

Who Stands Behind the Rules

Regional security arrangements require credible partners trusted by all sides. Pakistan, Türkiye, Qatar, and Oman are well placed to contribute, given their close ties with Gulf states and established channels of communication with Tehran.

Qatar and Pakistan have played active roles in mediation, with Iran’s Foreign Minister confirming their continued consultations on Iran’s conditions. Pakistan and Türkiye also maintain defense ties with Saudi Arabia alongside established partnerships with the United States. These relationships position them to help build confidence, support the implementation of regional agreements, and complement the diplomatic efforts of Washington, Riyadh, and Tehran.

Pakistan’s engagement with the Gulf has deep institutional roots. Defense cooperation has been a cornerstone of its relationship with Saudi Arabia since the 1960s, further reinforced by the 2025 agreement. Its constructive relations with both Riyadh and Tehran also provide a strong foundation for sustained regional diplomacy beyond immediate crises.

Regional cooperation is also gaining institutional depth. On October 21, the defense ministries of Qatar, Pakistan, Türkiye, and Indonesia signed the Badr Memorandum of Understanding, covering defense manufacturing, training, and research. This initiative reflects growing institutional ties and a shared commitment to long-term defense cooperation.

Having facilitated the 2023 Saudi-Iran rapprochement, China could also play a constructive supporting role. Its established diplomatic ties with both countries, together with its substantial economic and energy interests in the Gulf, provide a strong basis for supporting maritime security, continued dialogue, and the implementation of regional agreements.

Russia could also contribute to regional security through its established ties with Iran and the Gulf states. At the October 18 Russia-GCC Strategic Dialogue in Manama, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov renewed Moscow’s proposal for an inclusive Gulf security framework, emphasizing dialogue, confidence-building, and regional ownership. As a permanent member of the UN Security Council, Russia could support diplomatic guarantees, freedom of navigation, and the implementation of regional restraint measures, complementing rather than competing with existing initiatives.

The proposed restraint framework could build on these relationships by giving regional partners a sustained role in confidence-building, monitoring, and crisis management. Such an approach would help turn their diplomatic engagement during crises into a more enduring contribution to regional security and stability.

The Window for Action

Recent developments offer a cautious opening for de-escalation. The regional security environment remains delicate, with military warnings and renewed diplomatic efforts unfolding in parallel. On October 31, Iran’s Supreme Leader directed the armed forces to respond to threats “without geographical limitations,” underscoring the risks of renewed confrontation. However, on November 2, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed continued consultations through Pakistani and Qatari mediators and outlined a revised proposal for reopening the Strait of Hormuz within two days, subject to agreement on Tehran’s conditions. Although these exchanges have yet to produce a breakthrough, they offer a cautious opening for de-escalation.

The US midterm elections on November 3 add another dimension of uncertainty. The electoral outcome could influence the domestic political environment in which Washington approaches negotiations, military options, and its wider regional commitments. President Trump has indicated that military action against Iran would be deferred until after the elections, making the immediate post-election period particularly important for diplomacy. This reinforces the need to sustain mediation efforts and pursue practical measures, including a humanitarian corridor for stranded seafarers and an incidents-at-sea network, irrespective of political developments in Washington.

Lasting regional stability requires a balance between credible deterrence and practical restraint, with due regard for sovereignty, legitimate security interests, and sustained, inclusive dialogue. The Gulf’s growing defense partnerships provide a foundation for security, while agreed procedures and confidence-building measures can reduce the risk of incidents and escalation. The consensus reached at Manama offers an opportunity to translate shared principles into practical commitments, supported by continued engagement with all concerned parties, including Iran, to strengthen mutual confidence and build a more stable regional security framework.